Gravitational and non-gravitational effects in the orbital motion of asteroid 2022 AE1

Asteroid 2022 AE1 with a diameter of about 70 m, discovered at the very beginning of 2022, approached the Earth on December 31, 2021 at a minimum distance of 0.0664 au. The potential hazard of a collision with the Earth during the next close approach in 2023 was estimated by astronomers at 1 in 1700, which raised widespread public concern. Subsequent observations made it possible to refine the asteroid’s orbit and showed that the collision will be avoided. However, the upcoming close encounters of this asteroid with the Earth and, especially, with Venus, as well as possible approaches with the main belt asteroids, require not to weaken the attention to this object. Gravitational and non-gravitational effects can have a significant impact on its orbit and, as a consequence, lead to a collision with one of the inner planets. In this work, the displacements of asteroid 2022 AE1 under the influence of solar radiation pressure were calculated over several time intervals for various values of the average density of the object. Furthermore, the diurnal and seasonal components of the Yarkovsky effect were calculated for various rotation periods and axial tilt angles of the asteroid. As a result of the simulation, possible orbits of the asteroid were obtained and a probability estimation of the asteroid collision with the Earth was made.